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2021 College Basketball Bubble Watch - 3-7-21

College Basketball

2021 College Basketball Bubble Watch, March 7: Wild Wild Mountain West

Living dangerously.

There are not too many installments left in the unofficial 2021 College Basketball Bubble Watch. That can only mean one thing: We are on the precipice of greatness with the imminent arrival of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. And yes, this year, it’s happening. Never take it for granted again.

The bubble has seen a lot of shifting around this past week, as is often the case this time of year. Where does your favorite team land? What happened to that bubble team you’re following? We have all of the answers, and please do check out the latest college basketball bracketology.

Bubble Watch, March 7: ACC

DEFINITELY INVirginia, Florida State
MOST LIKELY INVirginia Tech, Clemson
PROBABLY INNorth Carolina, Louisville
POSSIBLY IN (bubble but in)Georgia Tech
POSSIBLY OUT (bubble but out)Syracuse
PROBABLY OUTDuke, NC State

North Carolina ended Duke’s season on Saturday night, which may make them happier than the fact that they will get into the tournament. Georgia Tech has surged and I would not want to be the six or seven seed that draws them. Syracuse still has a chance, but they need to make it happen at the ACC Tournament. Louisville is faltering but just outside the danger zone.

Bubble Watch, March 7: American

DEFINITELY INHouston
MOST LIKELY INNone
PROBABLY INNone
POSSIBLY IN (bubble but in)Wichita State
POSSIBLY OUT (bubble but out)Memphis, SMU
PROBABLY OUTNone

Houston is a certain tournament team. Wichita State is in line to get there as well if they take care of business. Memphis is moving up our board and is making an interesting case. SMU has not played a game in a month so it’s difficult for them to make a move.

Bubble Watch, March 7: Big 12

DEFINITELY INBaylor, Kansas, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
MOST LIKELY INOklahoma
PROBABLY INNone
POSSIBLY IN (bubble but in)None
POSSIBLY OUT (bubble but out)None
PROBABLY OUTNone

The Big 12 has a lot of locks for the tournament and many of them are clustered in the top four seed lines. Oklahoma is the only tournament contender among them that has not played their best as of late and are giving up seeding.

Bubble Watch, March 7: Big East

DEFINITELY INVillanova, Creighton
MOST LIKELY INNone
PROBABLY INConnecticut
POSSIBLY IN (bubble but in)None
POSSIBLY OUT (bubble but out)Seton Hall, Xavier, St. John’s
PROBABLY OUTProvidence, Marquette

Villanova is up and down but they are in, as are Creighton. UConn has more or less iced a bid in the last few days, now playing for seeding. Seton Hall, St. John’s, and Xavier are all on the bubble but we think all three are out. St. John’s is moving up while Seton Hall and Xavier are going down.

Bubble Watch, March 7: Big Ten

DEFINITELY INIllinois, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa
MOST LIKELY INWisconsin, Purdue
PROBABLY INRutgers, Maryland
POSSIBLY IN (bubble but in)Michigan State
POSSIBLY OUT (bubble but out)None
PROBABLY OUTIndiana, Minnesota

The Big Ten is very formidable at the top and in the middle of the pack. They will get a minimum of eight bids, but ten is not happening now because Indiana and Minnesota both collapsed.

Bubble Watch, March 7: Pac-12

DEFINITELY INColorado
MOST LIKELY INUSC
PROBABLY INOregon, UCLA
POSSIBLY IN (bubble but in)None
POSSIBLY OUT (bubble but out)Stanford
PROBABLY OUTNone

The Pac-12 looks like a four-bid league this time. With Arizona under a self-imposed ban and Stanford flopping around, it’s been this way for a bit.

Bubble Watch, March 7: SEC

DEFINITELY INAlabama, Arkansas
MOST LIKELY INTennessee
PROBABLY INLSU, Florida, Missouri
POSSIBLY IN (bubble but in)None
POSSIBLY OUT (bubble but out)Ole Miss
PROBABLY OUTMississippi State

The SEC can count on six bids. They would only get a seventh if Ole Miss gets hot and does some damage, but we are still waiting for that to happen. Feels strange not to have Kentucky up there, but they never got off the runway this season.

Bubble Watch, March 7: Other Conferences

DEFINITELY INLoyola Chicago (MVC), San Diego State (MWC)
MOST LIKELY INVCU (A-10)
PROBABLY INSt. Bonaventure (A-10)
POSSIBLY IN (bubble but in)Drake (MVC), Utah State (MWC), Colorado State (MWC), Boise State (MWC)
POSSIBLY OUT (bubble but out)Saint Louis (A-10)
PROBABLY OUTDavidson (A-10), Dayton (A-10), Richmond (A-10), Nevada (MWC)

Some of the above teams will get automatic bids to the 2021 NCAA Tournament, but the bubble is full of mid-majors. Saint Louis is as close to the cut line as you can be without being in the tournament, while Utah State played their way in due to a combination of the bubble having a rough weekend and their own comeback win on Saturday night.

Western Kentucky (C-USA) may well get their automatic bid, but would not get an at-large if it came to that.

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