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College Basketball Bubble Watch Analysis

College Basketball Bubble Watch Analysis Last Updated March 11, 2018

College Basketball Bubble Watch Analysis

With the NCAA Tournament approaching, the college basketball bubble watch analyzes not only the teams that are on the fence, but those well on either side of it.

We are also not merely concerned with one conference. Try all of them. However, those high-major conferences likely to generate at-large bids come first.

To see our latest college basketball bracketology thinking, we have a page for that. We also have a weekly college basketball top 25 poll.

Bubble Watch Key: Assuming No Auto-Bid Is Available, How Likely Will This Team Receive An At-Large Bid?
•••••• Extremely High Probability (Lock; more than 80%)
••••• High Probability (Basically a lock but not in elite tier; 60% to 80%)
•••• Above Average Probability (On the bubble but in; 50% to 60%)
••• Below Average Probability (On the bubble but out; 40% to 50%)
•• Low Probability (Faintly in the picture; 20% to 40%)
• Extremely Low Probability (Out unless they win the conference; less than 20%)

*** (Won the conference)

College Basketball Bubble Watch: Power Five and High-Major Conferences

American Athletic Conference

AAC Bubble Watch Rank
Cincinnati Bearcats ••••••
Wichita State Shockers ••••••
Houston Cougars ••••
Temple Owls
SMU Mustangs
UCF Knights
Memphis Tigers
Connecticut Huskies
East Carolina Pirates
South Florida Bulls
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulane Green Wave

Atlantic Coast Conference

ACC Bubble Watch Rank
Virginia Cavaliers ***
Duke Blue Devils ••••••
North Carolina Tar Heels ••••••
Clemson Tigers ••••••
Miami Hurricanes •••••
Florida State Seminoles •••••
Virginia Tech Hokies ••••
NC State Wolfpack ••••
Louisville Cardinals ••••
Syracuse Orange •••
Notre Dame Fighting Irish •••
Boston College Eagles
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Pittsburgh Panthers

Big East Conference

Big East Bubble Watch Rank
Villanova Wildcats ***
Xavier Musketeers ••••••
Creighton Bluejays •••••
Seton Hall Pirates •••••
Butler Bulldogs •••••
Providence Friars •••••
Marquette Golden Eagles •••
Georgetown Hoyas
DePaul Blue Demons
St. John’s Red Storm

Big 12 Conference

Big 12 Bubble Watch Rank
Kansas Jayhawks ***
Texas Tech Red Raiders ••••••
West Virginia Mountaineers ••••••
TCU Horned Frogs •••••
Kansas State Wildcats ••••
Texas Longhorns ••••
Oklahoma Sooners ••••
Baylor Bears •••
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Iowa State Cyclones

Big Ten Conference

Big Ten Bubble Watch Rank
Michigan Wolverines ***
Purdue Boilermakers ••••••
Michigan State Spartans ••••••
Ohio State Buckeyes ••••••
Nebraska Cornhuskers •••
Penn State Nittany Lions •••
Maryland Terrapins
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Indiana Hoosiers
Wisconsin Badgers
Northwestern Wildcats
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Iowa Hawkeyes
Illinois Fighting Illini

Pac-12 Conference

Pac-12 Bubble Watch Rank
Arizona Wildcats ***
Arizona State Sun Devils ••••
USC Trojans ••••
UCLA Bruins ••••
Washington Huskies ••
Utah Utes ••
Colorado Buffaloes
Oregon Ducks
Stanford Cardinal
Oregon State Beavers
Washington State Cougars
California Golden Bears




Southeastern Conference

SEC Bubble Watch Rank
Auburn Tigers ••••••
Kentucky Wildcats ••••••
Tennessee Volunteers ••••••
Florida Gators •••••
Texas A&M Aggies •••••
Missouri Tigers •••••
Arkansas Razorbacks •••••
Alabama Crimson Tide ••••
Mississippi State Bulldogs •••
Georgia Bulldogs
South Carolina Gamecocks
LSU Tigers
Mississippi Rebels
Vanderbilt Commodores

College Basketball Bubble Watch: Mid-Major Conferences

Atlantic 10 Conference

A-10 Bubble Watch Rank
Rhode Island Rams ••••••
St. Bonaventure Bonnies ••••
Davidson Wildcats ••
VCU Rams
Duquesne Dukes
Dayton Flyers
Richmond Spiders
Saint Joseph’s Hawks
George Mason Patriots
La Salle Explorers
Saint Louis Billikens
Massachusetts Minutemen
George Washington Colonials
Fordham Rams

Conference USA

C-USA Bubble Watch Rank
Marshall Thundering Herd ***
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders •••
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ••
Old Dominion Monarchs
UAB Blazers
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
North Texas Mean Green
Florida Atlantic Owls
FIU Golden Panthers
UT-San Antonio Roadrunners
UTEP Miners
Rice Owls
Charlotte 49ers

Mid-American Conference

MAC Bubble Watch Rank
Buffalo Bulls ***
Toledo Rockets
Miami RedHawks
Kent State Golden Flashes
Bowling Green Falcons
Akron Zips
Ohio Bobcats
Western Michigan Bulldogs
Ball State Cardinals
Northern Illinois Huskies
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Central Michigan Chippewas

Missouri Valley Conference

MVC Bubble Watch Rank
Loyola-Chicago Ramblers ***
Missouri State Bears
Bradley Braves
Drake Bulldogs
Southern Illinois Salukis
Indiana State Sycamores
Illinois State Redbirds
Evansville Purple Aces
Northern Iowa Panthers
Valparaiso Crusaders




Mountain West Conference

MWC Bubble Watch Rank
San Diego State Aztecs ***
Nevada Wolf Pack •••••
Boise State Broncos ••
Wyoming Cowboys
Fresno State Bulldogs
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
Utah State Aggies
New Mexico Lobos
Colorado State Rams
Air Force Falcons
San Jose State Spartans

Sun Belt Conference

Sun Belt Bubble Watch Rank
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
Texas State Bobcats
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia Southern Eagles
South Alabama Jaguars
UT-Arlington Mavericks
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Troy Trojans
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Arkansas State Red Wolves
UA-Little Rock Trojans
UL-Monroe Warhawks

West Coast Conference

WCC Bubble Watch Rank
Gonzaga Bulldogs ***
Saint Mary’s Gaels •••
BYU Cougars ••
San Diego Toreros
Pacific Tigers
Santa Clara Broncos
San Francisco Dons
Portland Pilots
Pepperdine Waves
Loyola Marymount Lions

College Basketball Bubble Watch: Other Conferences

Individual low-major teams will not be listed unless they are a potential at-large contender. This section takes out those teams that would be most likely automatic bids in their conference.

Conference Contender Rank
America East None None
Atlantic Sun None None
Big Sky None None
Big South None None
Big West None None
Colonial Athletic None None
Horizon League None None
Ivy League None None
MAAC None None
MEAC None None
Northeast None None
Ohio Valley None None
Patriot None None
Southern None None
Southland None None
SWAC None None
Summit League None None
WAC None None

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