College Basketball Bubble Watch Analysis Last Updated March 11, 2018
With the NCAA Tournament approaching, the college basketball bubble watch analyzes not only the teams that are on the fence, but those well on either side of it.
We are also not merely concerned with one conference. Try all of them. However, those high-major conferences likely to generate at-large bids come first.
To see our latest college basketball bracketology thinking, we have a page for that. We also have a weekly college basketball top 25 poll.
Bubble Watch Key: Assuming No Auto-Bid Is Available, How Likely Will This Team Receive An At-Large Bid?
•••••• Extremely High Probability (Lock; more than 80%)
••••• High Probability (Basically a lock but not in elite tier; 60% to 80%)
•••• Above Average Probability (On the bubble but in; 50% to 60%)
••• Below Average Probability (On the bubble but out; 40% to 50%)
•• Low Probability (Faintly in the picture; 20% to 40%)
• Extremely Low Probability (Out unless they win the conference; less than 20%)
*** (Won the conference)
College Basketball Bubble Watch: Power Five and High-Major Conferences
| AAC Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Cincinnati Bearcats |
•••••• |
| Wichita State Shockers |
•••••• |
| Houston Cougars |
•••• |
| Temple Owls |
• |
| SMU Mustangs |
• |
| UCF Knights |
• |
| Memphis Tigers |
• |
| Connecticut Huskies |
• |
| East Carolina Pirates |
• |
| South Florida Bulls |
• |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
• |
| Tulane Green Wave |
• |
| ACC Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Virginia Cavaliers |
*** |
| Duke Blue Devils |
•••••• |
| North Carolina Tar Heels |
•••••• |
| Clemson Tigers |
•••••• |
| Miami Hurricanes |
••••• |
| Florida State Seminoles |
••••• |
| Virginia Tech Hokies |
•••• |
| NC State Wolfpack |
•••• |
| Louisville Cardinals |
•••• |
| Syracuse Orange |
••• |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
••• |
| Boston College Eagles |
• |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
• |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
• |
| Pittsburgh Panthers |
• |
| Big East Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Villanova Wildcats |
*** |
| Xavier Musketeers |
•••••• |
| Creighton Bluejays |
••••• |
| Seton Hall Pirates |
••••• |
| Butler Bulldogs |
••••• |
| Providence Friars |
••••• |
| Marquette Golden Eagles |
••• |
| Georgetown Hoyas |
• |
| DePaul Blue Demons |
• |
| St. John’s Red Storm |
• |
| Big 12 Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Kansas Jayhawks |
*** |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders |
•••••• |
| West Virginia Mountaineers |
•••••• |
| TCU Horned Frogs |
••••• |
| Kansas State Wildcats |
•••• |
| Texas Longhorns |
•••• |
| Oklahoma Sooners |
•••• |
| Baylor Bears |
••• |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys |
• |
| Iowa State Cyclones |
• |
| Big Ten Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Michigan Wolverines |
*** |
| Purdue Boilermakers |
•••••• |
| Michigan State Spartans |
•••••• |
| Ohio State Buckeyes |
•••••• |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers |
••• |
| Penn State Nittany Lions |
••• |
| Maryland Terrapins |
• |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers |
• |
| Indiana Hoosiers |
• |
| Wisconsin Badgers |
• |
| Northwestern Wildcats |
• |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights |
• |
| Iowa Hawkeyes |
• |
| Illinois Fighting Illini |
• |
| Pac-12 Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Arizona Wildcats |
*** |
| Arizona State Sun Devils |
•••• |
| USC Trojans |
•••• |
| UCLA Bruins |
•••• |
| Washington Huskies |
•• |
| Utah Utes |
•• |
| Colorado Buffaloes |
• |
| Oregon Ducks |
• |
| Stanford Cardinal |
• |
| Oregon State Beavers |
• |
| Washington State Cougars |
• |
| California Golden Bears |
• |
| SEC Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Auburn Tigers |
•••••• |
| Kentucky Wildcats |
•••••• |
| Tennessee Volunteers |
•••••• |
| Florida Gators |
••••• |
| Texas A&M Aggies |
••••• |
| Missouri Tigers |
••••• |
| Arkansas Razorbacks |
••••• |
| Alabama Crimson Tide |
•••• |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs |
••• |
| Georgia Bulldogs |
• |
| South Carolina Gamecocks |
• |
| LSU Tigers |
• |
| Mississippi Rebels |
• |
| Vanderbilt Commodores |
• |
College Basketball Bubble Watch: Mid-Major Conferences
| A-10 Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Rhode Island Rams |
•••••• |
| St. Bonaventure Bonnies |
•••• |
| Davidson Wildcats |
•• |
| VCU Rams |
• |
| Duquesne Dukes |
• |
| Dayton Flyers |
• |
| Richmond Spiders |
• |
| Saint Joseph’s Hawks |
• |
| George Mason Patriots |
• |
| La Salle Explorers |
• |
| Saint Louis Billikens |
• |
| Massachusetts Minutemen |
• |
| George Washington Colonials |
• |
| Fordham Rams |
• |
| C-USA Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Marshall Thundering Herd |
*** |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
••• |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
•• |
| Old Dominion Monarchs |
• |
| UAB Blazers |
• |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
• |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles |
• |
| North Texas Mean Green |
• |
| Florida Atlantic Owls |
• |
| FIU Golden Panthers |
• |
| UT-San Antonio Roadrunners |
• |
| UTEP Miners |
• |
| Rice Owls |
• |
| Charlotte 49ers |
• |
| MAC Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Buffalo Bulls |
*** |
| Toledo Rockets |
• |
| Miami RedHawks |
• |
| Kent State Golden Flashes |
• |
| Bowling Green Falcons |
• |
| Akron Zips |
• |
| Ohio Bobcats |
• |
| Western Michigan Bulldogs |
• |
| Ball State Cardinals |
• |
| Northern Illinois Huskies |
• |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles |
• |
| Central Michigan Chippewas |
• |
| MVC Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Loyola-Chicago Ramblers |
*** |
| Missouri State Bears |
• |
| Bradley Braves |
• |
| Drake Bulldogs |
• |
| Southern Illinois Salukis |
• |
| Indiana State Sycamores |
• |
| Illinois State Redbirds |
• |
| Evansville Purple Aces |
• |
| Northern Iowa Panthers |
• |
| Valparaiso Crusaders |
• |
| MWC Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| San Diego State Aztecs |
*** |
| Nevada Wolf Pack |
••••• |
| Boise State Broncos |
•• |
| Wyoming Cowboys |
• |
| Fresno State Bulldogs |
• |
| UNLV Runnin’ Rebels |
• |
| Utah State Aggies |
• |
| New Mexico Lobos |
• |
| Colorado State Rams |
• |
| Air Force Falcons |
• |
| San Jose State Spartans |
• |
| Sun Belt Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns |
• |
| Texas State Bobcats |
• |
| Georgia State Panthers |
• |
| Georgia Southern Eagles |
• |
| South Alabama Jaguars |
• |
| UT-Arlington Mavericks |
• |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers |
• |
| Troy Trojans |
• |
| Coastal Carolina Chanticleers |
• |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves |
• |
| UA-Little Rock Trojans |
• |
| UL-Monroe Warhawks |
• |
| WCC Bubble Watch |
Rank |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs |
*** |
| Saint Mary’s Gaels |
••• |
| BYU Cougars |
•• |
| San Diego Toreros |
• |
| Pacific Tigers |
• |
| Santa Clara Broncos |
• |
| San Francisco Dons |
• |
| Portland Pilots |
• |
| Pepperdine Waves |
• |
| Loyola Marymount Lions |
• |
College Basketball Bubble Watch: Other Conferences
Individual low-major teams will not be listed unless they are a potential at-large contender. This section takes out those teams that would be most likely automatic bids in their conference.
| Conference |
Contender |
Rank |
| America East |
None |
None |
| Atlantic Sun |
None |
None |
| Big Sky |
None |
None |
| Big South |
None |
None |
| Big West |
None |
None |
| Colonial Athletic |
None |
None |
| Horizon League |
None |
None |
| Ivy League |
None |
None |
| MAAC |
None |
None |
| MEAC |
None |
None |
| Northeast |
None |
None |
| Ohio Valley |
None |
None |
| Patriot |
None |
None |
| Southern |
None |
None |
| Southland |
None |
None |
| SWAC |
None |
None |
| Summit League |
None |
None |
| WAC |
None |
None |
