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Bowl Projections

Bowl Projections Last Updated December 3, 2017

College Football Bowl Projections

Latest CFB Bowl Projections News

College Football Bowl Projections: Before We Begin…

As of now, there are 40 bowl games to follow the 2017-18 bowl season. Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina are ineligible for bowl games this year. Needless to say, the bar is low for most of the remaining contenders. Six wins almost guarantees a bowl, and you might even get there with five if the kids are graduating. (As of November 26, this is impossible.)

“New Year’s Six” bowl games begin on December 29 with the Cotton Bowl and continue into January.

The playoff semifinal games for 2017-18 are the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl on January 1, 2018. As for the College Football Playoff National Championship, that occurs on January 8, 2018.

Finally, do yourself a favor and check out the College Football Rankings.

College Football Bowl Projections: December 3, 2017 Analysis

We have a total of 81 bowl-eligible teams for 78 slots; three were removed. Two of them in our projections came from Conference USA, as they have ten, and they’re not getting ten invitations. Our final victim was Buffalo.

Florida State slotted in to a non-ACC bowl, as there was space available. Being that the Gasparilla Bowl is in Florida, this is the best they can hope for, and it’s the most they deserve.

College Football Bowl Projections: December 16, 2017

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
New Orleans Bowl Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State
Cure Bowl Temple vs. Georgia State
Las Vegas Bowl Oregon vs. Boise State
New Mexico Bowl Colorado State vs. Middle Tennessee
Camellia Bowl Akron vs. Appalachian State

College Football Bowl Projections: December 19-22, 2017

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
Boca Raton Bowl South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic
Frisco Bowl SMU vs. Troy
Gasparilla Bowl Florida State vs. Florida International
Bahamas Bowl Ohio vs. UAB
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Wyoming vs. Central Michigan

College Football Bowl Projections: December 23-24, 2017

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
Birmingham Bowl Memphis vs. Duke
Armed Forces Bowl Army vs. Marshall
Dollar General Bowl Toledo vs. North Texas
Hawaii Bowl Fresno State vs. Houston

College Football Bowl Projections: December 26, 2017

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
Cactus Bowl Texas Tech vs. Arizona State
Quick Lane Bowl Wake Forest vs. Western Michigan
Heart of Dallas Bowl Texas vs. Utah

College Football Bowl Projections: December 27, 2017

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
Independence Bowl Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Pinstripe Bowl Boston College vs. Iowa
Texas Bowl Kansas State vs. UCLA
Foster Farms Bowl Washington State vs. San Diego State

College Football Bowl Projections: December 28, 2017

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
Military Bowl Virginia vs. Navy
Camping World Bowl West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Alamo Bowl Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
Holiday Bowl Northwestern vs. Washington

College Football Bowl Projections: December 29, 2017 (Non-NY6 Bowls)

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
Belk Bowl Notre Dame vs. Mississippi State
Sun Bowl Arizona vs. Louisville
Music City Bowl North Carolina State vs. Kentucky

College Football Bowl Projections: December 30, 2017 (Non-NY6 Bowls)

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
TaxSlayer Bowl Purdue vs. South Carolina
Liberty Bowl Iowa State vs. Missouri
Arizona Bowl New Mexico State vs. Utah State

College Football Bowl Projections: January 1, 2018 (Non-NY6 Bowls)

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
Outback Bowl Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Bowl Michigan State vs. LSU

College Football Bowl Projections: New Years Six and College Football Playoff Semifinal Bowls

College Football Playoff games indicated with asterisk.

Game Team 1 vs. Team 2
Cotton Bowl Penn State vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl USC vs. Wisconsin
Orange Bowl Miami (FL) vs. Alabama
Peach Bowl Central Florida vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl* Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl* Clemson vs. Ohio State

College Football Bowl Projections: November 26, 2017 Analysis

Out of 78 bowl slots, we now have 79 bowl-eligible teams. This could crack 80 next week on championship Saturday with a few other rogue regular season games. At least one team is getting left behind. As part of the bowl projections, we had to figure out who that would be.

Sadly, Western Kentucky was that team. We knew it would come from Conference USA, which has an FBS-leading ten bowl-eligible teams. They don’t have nearly that many tie-ins, so someone had to go. Based on brief reviews of their resumes, I’m down on the Tops. It could also be UTSA at 6-5. If it’s a MAC team, it will be 6-6 Buffalo.

College Football Bowl Projections: November 19, 2017 Analysis

We are up to 70 bowl-eligible teams in a year where 78 teams will get bids. One, maybe two games remain for the teams who still have a chance. There are nearly 20 teams still in the running.

It is clear now that we’re going to have at least a couple strange bowl matchups because of under-representation in a few of the Power Five conferences. We are giving the Pac-12 and SEC nine, but the ACC is at eight, the Big 12 gets just six, and the Big Ten has seven. Meanwhile, Conference USA is getting ten, and this is in a year where we do not forecast any 5-7 teams in a bowl. You’re going to have to put all these teams somewhere, which means there will be a handful of “first-tier” bowls that have Group of Five schools in them.

College Football Bowl Projections: November 13, 2017 Analysis

There are 59 confirmed bowl-eligible teams, with 78 spots total. It’s getting easier each week to figure out who the remaining 19 teams will be. Astoundingly, we only have one 5-7 APR-buster in the mix. That would be Vanderbilt.

Also astoundingly, we also have a dearth of Conference USA teams. Good on UAB for getting back to a bowl game in their first year since the program was resuscitated from suspended animation. We also have the Pac-12 getting nine teams in bowls, but that number could still swing wildly. It appears more and more like the Big Ten is heading for eight bowl teams, when we originally thought nine or ten. The ACC may only get nine as well.

College Football Bowl Projections: November 7, 2017 Analysis

Somewhat of a nondescript week of bowl projections. This week’s magic trick was finding the right spots for Pac-12 overflow teams, and even a Sun Belt or C-USA team or two. We are not married to teams like Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, or even Duke or Vandy in bowls, but here’s the thing. When doing our first sweep of teams we expect to be bowl eligible, we were five short at 73. Those other five have to come from somewhere, even 5-7 squads with high APRs.

College Football Bowl Projections: October 30, 2017 Analysis

The SEC can’t get its act together. Now it looks like they could have six teams sitting out during bowl season, less than the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12. Among the cuts are Florida, coachless, and Tennessee, soon to be coachless. The result again was a vacuum in the SEC’s first-tier bowls, with Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn getting New Years Six bids.

College Football Bowl Projections: October 23, 2017 Analysis

The SEC has a bit more representation this week and the bowl projections look a little less crazy. Last year, it was a struggle to find 80 teams of the appropriate record to get into bowls. This year, at just 78, there’s a cut. The Sun Belt doesn’t have much status, nor does the American. You will find the ACC and Pac-12 with double-digit teams in bowls.

A notable omission from this week’s projections: Florida State. They could get to six wins, but otherwise, we’ve seen enough. The Seminoles are a disastrous 2-4, when many thought they would be 5-1 by now. If it gets better for Florida State, it won’t be much better.

College Football Bowl Projections: October 16, 2017 Analysis

One major difference between last week and this one is the thinning out of the SEC’s ranks. The ACC and Pac-12 both have more bowl teams; the latter is in spite of the bad “big picture” weekend the Pac-12 had. It wasn’t sunshine for the ACC, either, who saw their CFP threat fall out of the top four.

With a heavy imbalance of teams, we end up having to find spots for several Pac-12 teams and a few other random undesirables. This gets you some strange locales for teams with no conference tie-ins, but some of the matchups hold intrigue. For example, Louisville vs. UCLA is hard to picture because of geography, but Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Rosen might be too good to pass up. Besides, we were out of Big Ten teams, the MAC schools have better places to go, and these particular schools don’t.

All of this will change over the next month and a half. If the SEC doesn’t get more teams heading towards six wins, their under-representation will do crazy things to the bowl projections.



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